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CFA Romania: Macro-level imbalances and unpredictability will maintain uncertainty in economy's evolution
Macro-level imbalances and the unpredictability of fiscal policy will maintain uncertainty regarding the evolution of the Romanian economy, which is also reflected by the anticipation component of the confidence indicator, claims Adrian Codirla?u, president of CFA Romania.
"In the conditions of Romania's rating confirmation, the confidence indicator has registered an increase in the last two months. However, the level of the indicator and both of its components still indicate recessionary conditions. Also, the imbalances at the macro level, as well as the unpredictability of fiscal policy, will maintain uncertainty regarding the evolution of the Romanian economy, which is also reflected by the expectations component of the indicator," explained Codirla?u, in a statement sent on Friday.
According to the cited source, the Macroeconomic Confidence Indicator of the CFA Romania Association increased in August by 2.3 points, up to 37.2 points. Its two components had different developments. Thus, the expectations component increased by 0.5 points, up to 34.2, while the current conditions component increased by 5.8 points, up to 43.4.
According to CFA Romania, the anticipated inflation rate for the 12-month horizon (September 2026) increased compared to the value recorded in the previous month and reached the level of 6.63%. The association specifies that at the time of the survey, the inflation rate stood at 7.84%.
Regarding the euro/leu exchange rate, approximately 83% of participants anticipate a depreciation of the leu in the next 12 months, while 10% anticipate stability. Thus, the average value of the expectations for the 6-month horizon is 5.1024 lei for one euro, while for the 12-month horizon, the average value of the anticipated euro/leu exchange rate is 5.1522 RON for one euro.
Regarding the evolution of residential property prices in cities, 43% of participants anticipate stagnation in the next 12 months, while another 43% anticipate a decrease. Also, 67% of participants consider that current prices are overvalued, and 27% that they are correctly valued.
The state budget deficit forecast for 2025 increased slightly compared to the previous year, to the average value of the expectations of 7.7% of GDP.
At the same time, economic growth expectations for 2025 are slightly lower than the previous year, at an average value of 0.7%, with opinions among participants regarding a possible entry into recession of the Romanian economy.
Public debt calculated as a percentage of GDP is expected to increase to 60% in the next 12 months.
An additional question included in the survey refers to expectations regarding Romania's downgrade to the non-investment grade ("junk"). Thus, according to the results, 88% of participants anticipate Romania's maintenance in the investment grade category in the next 12 months.
The survey is conducted monthly by the CFA Romania Association for over 14 years, and represents an indicator through which the organization wishes to quantify the expectations of financial analysts regarding economic activity in Romania for a one-year time horizon. The survey is conducted in the last week of each month and the participants are members of the CFA Romania Association and candidates for levels II and III of the CFA exam.
The Macroeconomic Confidence Indicator takes values ??between 0 (lack of confidence) and 100 (full confidence in the Romanian economy) and is calculated based on 6 questions regarding current conditions - regarding the business environment and the labor market; expectations for a one-year time horizon for: the business environment, the labor market, the evolution of personal income at the economy level and the evolution of personal wealth at the economy level.
According to CFA Romania, in addition to the questions necessary for calculating the Macroeconomic Confidence Indicator, the survey also evaluates expectations, also for a one-year horizon, for the inflation rate, interest rates, the euro/leu exchange rate, the BET stock market index and global macroeconomic conditions.
The CFA Romania Association is the organization of investment professionals in Romania, holders of the Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) designation, a qualification administered by the CFA Institute (USA). The CFA Romania Association is one of the over 160 member societies of the CFA Institute. Currently, the CFA Romania Association has over 270 members.