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Cristian Pirvulescu: It is very likely that we will have the best turnout in the parliamentary elections since 2008
The political analyst Cristian Pirvulescu states that it is very likely that the turnout in the parlamentary elections will be good enough, due to the placement of the parliamentary voting between the two rounds of the presidential elections, but he draws attention that they will ‘induce a perverse effect’ and will ‘reward’ the parties whose leaders will enter the second round.
He explained that usually the social and age groups that are most dependent on the system of rewards put in place by the system parties are the first to vote, but as this year the electoral offer of the candidates is "rather poor", the reasons for voter turnout should be sought on social networks, where conspiracy theories and fake news can mobilise or demobilise voters.
‘It is very likely that the turnout be higher not only for the pensioners and the rural environment and small and medium-sized towns voters, but for the other social categories and age as well. The negative campaigns have already affected the score of the candidates and the parties during this period, and they succeed one another while the attacks on the person are devastating, which mean an increase of the electoral emotivity. Or, this is a determining factor in the decision to come or not to vote. ‘The protest vote’ was from the beginning, in May 1990 an important factor for electoral participation. And so will it be this year. But the reason for taking part differs depending on the variables, such as the level of education, the income, the living environment or the gender. And as the electoral offer of the candidates is rather poor, the causes for electoral participation must be found somewhere else. For example, on the social media, where the conspiration theories and the fake news may mobilise or demobilize the electorate’ said the analyst.
Pirvulescu considers that the higher presence for voting will favour, as usual ‘protest and opinion vote’ which escape the control of the system parties.
"In these elections too, the higher turnout will favour, as has happened every time, the protest and opinion vote, which is out of the control of the political parties system. The presence of far-right candidates and parties, however, definitely changes electoral behaviour. So the higher turnout will not be an impediment for some of the governing parties. This is because of the electoral calendar and the fact that the parliamentary elections are placed between the two rounds of the presidential elections," said Professor Pîrvulescu.
Asked about the drastic drop in the interest of the electors for the parliamentary elections over the last years, reflected in the turnout, Cristian Pirvulescu explained that, in fact, it is about the effect of the changes in the Romanians’ migration to the west.
"It's a simple arithmetical calculation, with a voting population of 19 million voters and almost 6 million Romanians who have left - figures bandied about by politicians, for example by the Prime Minister, but which seem somewhat lower based on INS analyses - there are about 13 million voters left in the country. Based on this figure, turnout no longer seems so low. The fact that a large number of Romanians have left the country to work and live abroad has led to a significant drop in voter turnout," Mr Pîrvulescu said.
Cristian Pirvulescu accepted that ‘it is possible but not absolutely sure’ that for the second round of presidential elections the turnout will be smaller than for the two previous rounds.
According to Professor Pîrvulescu, low voter turnout favours "system parties" that have a strong local infrastructure in place, but the contagion effect of the presidential elections on the parliamentary elections could be a factor to stimulate grouping and anti-system speech as it happened during the elections in 2000 and 2004.