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Extreme weather sends breakfast food prices soaring by 55% in a single year

  • eToro’s Breakfast Commodity Index tracks prices of staple breakfast foods

  • Cocoa prices soared 4x (270%) in just one year, following historically low rainfall in West Africa

  • Orange juice prices have more than doubled due to adverse weather and disease

  • 55% increase in breakfast commodity prices vastly exceeds 5.9% % Romanian CPI increase


The cost of commodities that make up a typical breakfast has soared 55% in a single year, led by major spikes in cocoa and pork, the latest Breakfast Commodity Index from trading and investing platform eToro has found.


The rate of price growth amongst breakfast food staples dramatically outpaced the 5.9% rise in the Romanian consumer price index (CPI) or the 2.07% increase in food prices over the same period, indicating that consumers are likely to face further price pressures.


Ben Laidler, Global Markets Strategist at eToro, said: “Prices of staple foods experienced immense volatility since the pandemic and the onset of the war in Ukraine. While we have seen some of these supply chain pressures subside, extreme weather and disease in the global south have caused heightened volatility in some key breakfast food prices. Cocoa, orange and coffee harvests have been most heavily impacted over the past year, with many producers now running at reduced capacity and turning to reserve stocks where possible.


It’s possible that the seismic price divergence we’re seeing in breakfast food commodities may begin to impact consumer behavior, as the price of some breakfast items such as wheat and milk fall and other items such as orange juice, cocoa and coffee reach record highs.”


Cocoa prices have experienced the most dramatic rise of all breakfast-related commodities, increasing by 270% in the past year. Severe drought in West Africa, a region which produces 80% of the world’s cocoa, has contributed significantly to shortage in supply and rising prices.


Orange juice has experienced similar weather-induced supply pressures caused by crop disease and extreme weather events in the United States, southern Europe and Brazil, rising 39% in the past 12 months.


By contrast, the price of wheat and milk have fallen by 14.4% and 3.9% in the past year.