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Cristian Pirvulescu, possible scenarios after Calin Georgescu left the race
Political analyst Cristian Pirvulescu says that, when Calin Georgescu left the presidential race, George Simion could have a chance of reaching the second round of elections in May, in vase he has access to Georgescu's electors and their support.
Thus, it will be the end of his political career, Pirvulescu considers. According to him, in case the extreme right cannot mobilize a candidate, there will be two candidates to take advantage: Nicusor Dan, who could take over a part of the anti-system electors and Victor Ponta, who will try to take over votes from the extreme right. In case Crin Antonescu and Nicusor Dan reach the second round of elections, the latter will have the chance to win, since Antonescu will be considered a candidate of the system.
“Theoretically speaking, yes, George Simion (AUR leader, e.n.) will have the chance to reach the second round, but for him it is important to reach Georgescu's electors. But, without Georgescu's support he will not succeed. And Simion will not risk to enter the sedon round this time, because it is the end of his political career,” politologist Cristian Pirvulescu told News.ro.
Asked whether he thinks Georgescu will help Simion, Pirvulescu said he cannot make a concrete answer to that question but he thinks Georgescu has suspicions about Simion.
“I don't who Georgescu's candidate will be and whether there will be candidate for Georgescu. It is certain that AUR will discuss about other possible candidacies. Let's not forget that Tarziu, has constantly asked these days, for a B plan and a spare candidacy. As I understand, plan B has existed, signatures were gathered, but these have not been made public in order to maintain pressure in Georgescu's favour. We are not speaking about about naivete, these people were aware that Georgescu had few chances to remain a candidate in the given constitutional conditions. That is why they were preparing a military coup, that is why Potra is threatening to mobilize the military. Today's CCR decision about military pensions creates a complicated situation in favor of the extreme right movement,” Pirvulescu explained.
Pirvulescu said about the other candidates that in case the extreme right could not cucceed in mobilizing a candidate, there will be two candidates to take advantage of that thing. “One of them, Nicusor Dan, is already in the race and was validated and could take over a part of the anti-system electors. And Ponta will try to take over votes from the extreme right. It is clear that other candidates like Lasconi sill equally try, in case she intends to run,” Pirvulescu said.
The analyst said that Antonescu would not be able to take advantage of that electorate as it would be a big battle, including in areas f electors ready to leave the extreme right in favour of a form of central movement.
“There we find Nicusor Dan and Elena Lasconi, who will be better placed towards those electors, who represented 36% in November. So, I dont 'believe in stories which speak about more electors, that is the potential of the extreme right, but if they don;t have a candidate to mobilize the number of those electors can drop significantly. It is a fluctuating electorate, not a certain one,” Pirvulescu pointed out.
According to the political analyst, in case Nicusor Dan and Crin Antonescu reach the second round of elections, then Nicusor Dan will have the first chance, as he can attract a significant part of antisystem electors, while Antonescu is the candidate of the system, therefore we have a problem.
“In a confrontation between Crin Antonescu and Nicusor Dan, the latter has the first chance because he can attract a significant part of antisystem electors. Antonescu is the candidate of the system, which is a problem. If system parties do not help him, they will boycot him and he will face an important problem. We will see how serious parties have been when announcing their support for Antonescu. Finally, they also bet on their future, since an extreme right candidate would change alliances in Romania. Ponta has already announced that. Therefore we will have another rule if we have a presdient who is not pro-western. Nicusor Danis a peculiar case. He is an independent anti-system candidate who is also pro-European,”Pirvulescu added.
Pirvulescu said about Victor Ponta's chances of reaching the second round, that he had a chance, but he could nto say how important it is because “Ponta's image is also connected to PSD and the system.” “He will try to pose as being anti-system, anti-Soros, but heis a risk as everybody knows that he has been in the center of the system,” Pirvulescu added.
About AUR, Pirvulescu said that there is “a phalange” in the party, ready to count on that chance, because AUR members want to rule, to force things, to win the Presdiency and they will do anything for any candidate.
“They can mobilize votes, they are very active in the rural area and small towns, we are talking about a middle class frustrated for not having access to funds and who think they have now a chance to recover historic debts. They are the frustrated wh did not catch the first train which they want to catch at any cost. They do not take into account that there is an important risk for Romania to lose access to European funds. They want to have those funds for themselves, now,” Pirvulescu concluded.